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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest race is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent also-rans ascending collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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