A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
